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流通企业与生产企业所处行业性质的差异,决定了其与生产企业破产风险的差异。对企业破产风险的估计,目前流行两种模型:一种是F.Lundberg提出的专门研究保险企业破产风险的古典模型,另一种是A ltm an提出的Z值模型。该两种模型预测企业破产风险非常有效,但它们只预测经济学意义上的企业破产风险。法律意义上的破产风险不同于经济学意义上的破产风险,它的影响因素取决于国家法律的规定。中国破产法规定企业破产的原因有两个:支付不能和资不抵债。本文以此为依据,提出了法律意义上的流通企业破产风险回归模型,并对其进行了检验,最后对与模型相关的问题和改良思路进行了介绍。
The differences in the nature of the industries in which the circulation enterprises and the manufacturing enterprises are located determine the differences between them and the risks of bankruptcy of the production enterprises. There are two popular models for estimating the bankruptcy risk of an enterprise. One is the classical model proposed by F. Lundberg to study the bankruptcy risk of insurance companies, and the other is the Z-value model proposed by A ltann. These two models are very effective in predicting the bankruptcy risk of enterprises, but they only predict the bankruptcy risk in the sense of economics. The risk of bankruptcy in the legal sense is different from the risk of bankruptcy in the sense of economics. Its influencing factors depend on the provisions of national law. China Bankruptcy Law provides for bankruptcy for two reasons: can not pay and insolvent. Based on this, this paper puts forward the regression model of bankruptcy risk in the legal sense of the circulation enterprises, and tests it. Finally, the problems and the improvement ideas about the model are introduced.