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突发事件发生后,可能会引发一系列的次生、衍生事件,形成事件链式效应。事件链式效应使得突发事件更加复杂,因此对突发事件链式效应的研究对应急管理工作具有重要指导意义。该文在现有灾害理论研究的基础上,针对突发事件的发生规律,提出了突发事件由4个要素组成,即致灾因子、承灾体、孕灾环境和相互作用形式,并进而提出了一种描述事件链式效应的方法。以地震事件链为例对该方法进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法可对突发事件链式效应进行有效的描述。
After an emergency occurs, it may trigger a series of secondary and derivative events, forming an event chain effect. The chain effect of events makes the emergencies more complicated, so the research on the chain effects of emergencies is of great guiding significance to the emergency management. On the basis of the existing disaster theory, this paper proposes aiming at the occurrence law of emergencies, it proposes that the emergencies consist of four elements, namely the disaster-causing factor, the disaster-bearing body, the environment and the interaction form of the disaster and then A method to describe the chain effect of events is proposed. The case of earthquake event chain is taken as an example to verify the method. The results show that this method can effectively describe the chain effect of emergency events.