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在考虑地区贸易开放度差异的情况下,通过构建省际面板门限模型实证检验了中国财政支出与贸易差额的非线性联动关系。研究结果表明,中国财政支出对贸易差额的影响会因地区贸易开放度的差异而呈现显著的门限特征。其中,位于低开放度地区的省份,财政支出对贸易差额的影响并不显著,此时“李嘉图等价”成立;位于中等开放度地区的省份,财政支出与贸易差额呈现“双重发散”效应,财政支出扩张能够有效改善贸易差额;而位于高开放度地区的省份,财政支出与贸易差额存在“双重赤字”关联,财政支出扩张会导致贸易差额的恶化。研究发现,各地区的门限效应还受制于财政支出结构,转移性支出对贸易差额的影响要明显强于购买性支出。
Taking into account the differences in regional trade openness, this paper empirically tests the non-linear linkage between fiscal expenditure and trade balance in China by constructing a threshold model of provincial panels. The results show that the impact of China’s fiscal expenditure on the trade balance will show significant threshold characteristics due to the differences in regional trade openness. Among them, the provinces located in the region with a low degree of openness have no significant effect on the trade balance. At this moment, the “Ricardo Equivalence” was established; the provinces located in the moderately open regions showed a double divergence in fiscal expenditure and trade balance However, in the provinces with high openness, there is a “double deficit” between fiscal expenditures and trade balances. The expansion of fiscal expenditures will lead to a worsening of the trade balance. The study finds that the threshold effect in each region is also subject to the structure of fiscal expenditure, and the impact of transfer expenditure on the trade balance is significantly stronger than the purchase expenditure.