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本文基于新经济地理学研究了中国—东盟自贸区深度一体化中的产业发展和福利问题。运用数值模拟重点讨论了自贸区外不同贸易自由度、自贸区内各国不同市场规模以及自贸区外不同市场规模这三种情形下,随着贸易自由度的增加,各国产业份额和福利水平的变动情况。结果表明,在中国—东盟自由贸易区深度一体化进程中,中国等自贸区内的大国会实现本国产业发展和福利提升的双赢,市场规模较小的国家能获得福利的增加但是其本国的产业发展是不确定的。
Based on the new economic geography, this paper studies the industrial development and welfare issues in the deep integration of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Using numerical simulation to focus on three different situations: the degree of freedom of trade outside the FTZ, the size of different markets within the FTZ, and the size of different markets outside the FTZ, as the degree of freedom of trade increases, the share of industries and welfare in each country Horizontal changes. The results show that in the process of the deep integration of China-ASEAN free trade area, the big congress, such as China, in a free trade area will achieve a win-win situation in its industrial development and welfare improvement. Countries with smaller markets will get an increase in welfare but their own Industrial development is uncertain.