论文部分内容阅读
目的了解上海市出生人口性别比特征及其变化趋势,并探索出生性别的影响因素,为人口和计划生育工作提供数据支持。方法收集2004—2013年上海市出生监测数据,描述出生人口性别比变化趋势,运用经济学贡献率的概念,计算不同因素对出生性别比升高的贡献,应用多因素logistic回归模型,分析出生人口性别比的影响因素。结果 2004—2013年上海市外来人口出生性别比从125降低到117,预测至2025年能达到正常水平。上海市出生性别比的升高主要由外来人口引起;产次的增加(OR2 vs1=1.19,OR3 vs1=1.67,OR>3 vs1=1.61)、母亲学历低(OR=1.01)是出生性别比升高的影响因素;父母生育年龄的升高将使得出生性别比降低(OR父=OR母=0.99)。结论上海市外来人口出生性别比偏高,母亲文化程度较低,父母的性别偏好观念对出生性别比有影响。
Objective To understand the characteristics of sex ratio at birth in Shanghai and its changing trend and to explore the influencing factors of sex at birth to provide data support for population and family planning work. Methods The data of birth monitoring in Shanghai from 2004 to 2013 were collected to describe the changing trend of sex ratio at birth. The concept of economic contribution rate was used to calculate the contribution of different factors to the increase of sex ratio at birth. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the birth population Factors influencing sex ratio. Results The sex ratio of births of migrants in Shanghai was reduced from 125 to 117 in 2004-2013, and it is expected to reach the normal level by 2025. The rise in sex ratio at birth in Shanghai was mainly caused by the migrant population; the birth parity (OR2 vs1 = 1.19, OR3 vs1 = 1.67, OR> 3 vs1 = 1.61) High impact factors; increased parental childbearing age will make the sex ratio decreased (OR parent = OR = 0.99). Conclusion The sex ratio at birth of migrant population in Shanghai is comparatively high, the educational level of mothers is low, and the gender preference of parents has an impact on the sex ratio at birth.