旧金山湾地区(SFBR)位于素有“地震机器”之称的太平洋板块与北美板块交界处。这一地区曾于1838、1868、1906及1989年遭受到破坏性大地震打击,未来发生大地震是肯定的。震前准备工作对拯救生命、降低财产损失和建筑物破坏起关键作用,而更好地认识可能发生的地震的时间、大小、位置及其影响,是所有有效震前准备工作的必要环节。本报告是关于2000～2030年30年内该海湾地区大地震发生的概率研究。旧金 The San Francisco Bay Area (SFBR) is located at the junction of the Pacific and North American territories known as the Seismics. The area was hit by a devastating earthquake in 1838, 1868, 1906 and 1989, and a major earthquake in the future was confirmed. Pre-earthquake preparation plays a key role in saving lives, reducing property damage and building damage. A better understanding of the time, size, location and impact of possible earthquakes is an essential part of any preparatory work before an earthquake. This report is about the probabilistic study on the occurrence of a major earthquake in the Gulf Basin in the 30 years from 2000 to 2030. Old gold