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为预测空域扇区在未来一定时段内的交通需求及其变化规律,基于简化的空域运行网络结构,从不确定性角度分析了航空器飞行时间对空域扇区交通需求预测的影响,针对航空器进入、离开扇区和在扇区内飞行过程的随机性,给出了相应概率分布函数.在此基础上,建立了空域扇区概率交通需求预测模型,设计了启发式算法.对实际航班数据的仿真结果表明:本文模型和算法预测时段10:00~11:00扇区发生拥挤,比传统的确定性方法预测的拥挤时段减少了30 min,避免了在时段9:30~10:00采取不必要的流量管理措施,降低了该时段管制员的工作负荷.
In order to predict the traffic demand and the variation regularity of airspace sector in a certain period in the future, based on the simplified network structure of airspace operation, the influence of aircraft flight time on the traffic demand forecast of airspace sector is analyzed from the perspective of uncertainty. Leaving the sector and the randomness of the flight process in the sector, the corresponding probability distribution function is given.On the basis of this, a traffic demand forecasting model of airspace sector probability is established and a heuristic algorithm is designed. The simulation of actual flight data The results show that the proposed model and algorithm are crowded in the 10: 00-11: 00 sector during the prediction period, which is 30 minutes shorter than the congestion period predicted by the traditional deterministic method, which avoids the unnecessary congestion in the period 9: 30-10: 00 Of the traffic management measures, reducing the workload of the controller during this period.