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为研究河道防洪堤坝事故的概率，把水文风险和水流风险区分开，根据风险理论给出一种考虑水流风险因子的风险分析方法，探讨河道防洪堤坝仅因水流参数出现偏差而失事的概率，为正确评价现行防洪堤坝的安全性提供了必要的依据．算例表明，对于防洪标准较高的河道，应重视水流参数偏差引起的水流风险．所得结论对水文风险分析计算的进一步研究具有借鉴价值。
In order to study the probability of flood control dam accident, the risk of hydrology and flow risk are distinguished. According to the risk theory, a risk analysis method considering flow risk factor is given. The probability of the flood control dam is only due to the deviation of flow parameters. Correct evaluation of the current flood control dam provides the necessary basis for the safety. The example shows that, for flood control standards of high river, should pay attention to the water flow caused by the deviation of flow parameters. The conclusions obtained have reference value for the further study of hydrological risk analysis and calculation.