自50年代中期至今,美国“衰落论”已经几度起伏。前几次的由头分别是50年代后期苏联发射人造卫星成功、60年代末西欧与日本的重新崛起、70年代前期的“石油危机”和后期美国在越南的失败与苏联在一些地方得手。最近,随着1987年耶鲁大学历史学教授保罗·肯尼迪《大国的兴衰》一书问世,在美国国内“衰落论”与“复兴论”之争又出现新的高潮,进入了第五个回合。 Since the mid-1950s, the “decline theory” of the United States has fluctuated several times. The previous incidents were the success of Soviet satellite launches in the late 1950s, the reemergence of Western Europe and Japan in the late 1960s, the “oil crisis” in the early 1970s and the failure of the United States in Vietnam with the Soviet Union in some places. Recently, with the advent of Paul Kennedy, Professor of History at Yale University in 1987, on the book “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” a new upsurge emerged in the debate over “decline theory” and “renaissance theory” in the United States and entered the fifth round.