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1973年以来,我区抗疟工作采取了以针对传染源为主的措施,发病率从4.72%逐步降至0.27%。本文根据指数曲线的理论算出1973年以来疟疾发病率下降的指数曲线方程为:y=10~(0.5778-0.1(?)6x),并用此方程式求出1973年以来的理论发病率。该资料经直线回归与指数曲线回归拟合度的相互比较(方差之比为3.05,P<0.1;曲线回归相关指数R~2=0.9362,直线回归的R~2=0.7697)表明:本资料配指数曲线优于配直线回归。我区逐年疟疾实际发病率和理论发病率吻合程度相当高。根据上述公式计算出(在各种因素不发生巨大变化情况下)要使我区疾疟发病率降至5/万和1/万,分
Since 1973, the anti-malaria work in our district has taken the measures of focusing on the source of infection and the incidence has been gradually reduced from 4.72% to 0.27%. According to the exponential curve theory, the exponential curve equation of decreasing incidence of malaria since 1973 is calculated as follows: y = 10 ~ (0.5778-0.1 (?) 6x), and the theoretical incidence rate after 1973 is obtained by this equation. The data by linear regression and exponential curve regression fitting degree of mutual comparison (variance ratio 3.05, P <0.1; curve regression correlation index R ~ 2 = 0.9362, linear regression R ~ 2 = 0.7697) shows that: Exponential curve is better than with linear regression. Year after year, the actual incidence of malaria and the theoretical incidence of a very high degree of agreement. According to the above formula (in a variety of factors does not change under the circumstances) to make the incidence of malaria in our district down to 5 / 10,000 and 1 / 10,000 points