多沙水库泥沙淤积严重制约了水库兴利效益的发挥,而实施水库水沙优化调度、提高排沙效率的关键在于坝址泥沙预测。利用不同洪水之间的相似性,在构建水库水沙过程相似性指标体系的基础上,分析了水库水沙过程相似性,提出了坝址泥沙预测相似推理方法,预测了三门峡水库坝址泥沙过程,并进行了预测误差分析。结果表明,该方法切实可行,预测精度较高。 Sedimentation of Dousha reservoir severely hinders the development of the benefit of reservoirs, and the key to implementing optimal operation of reservoir water and sediment to improve sediment discharge efficiency lies in the sediment prediction of the dam site. Based on the similarity index of water and sediment in the reservoir, the similarity between reservoir and sediment was analyzed based on the similarity between different floods. A similar reasoning method was proposed to predict the sediment concentration in the reservoir site. Sand process, and forecast error analysis. The results show that this method is feasible and predictable.