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论文在综合考虑系统属性、风险过程后,基于致险、承险因子及损害程度构建了水资源系统风险的评价指标体系及模型。该指标体系由4层次共20个指标构成,能更好地表征风险的产生和构成。评价模型包括参数计算与风险分级,能简便计算风险参数及因子贡献率并进行相应的风险级别划分。随后运用上述指标体系及模型,评价了北京市面临的水资源系统风险,结果表明主要致险因子是缺水率(0.426 1),主要的承险因子是水资源保障程度(0.647 6);若单考虑致险情况下的风险,北京市面临57.13%的致险率,在综合考虑水资源承险能力后得到风险为26.97%,显示北京市能较好应对水资源系统风险,但仍受约束性风险限制,可通过开源节流、调整产业结构及规范水资源管理来应对。
After synthetically considering the system attributes and risk processes, the paper constructs an evaluation index system and model of water resources system risk based on risk-taking, risk-taking factors and degree of damage. The index system consists of four levels and a total of 20 indicators, to better characterize the risk of production and composition. The evaluation model includes parameter calculation and risk classification, which can easily calculate the risk parameters and the contribution rate of factors and make corresponding risk classification. Then, using the above index system and model, we evaluate the systematic risk of water resources in Beijing. The results show that the main risk factor is the water deficit rate (0.426 1) and the main risk factor is the water resources security degree (0.647 6). If Considering the risks under risk-inducing conditions, Beijing is facing a risk of 57.13%, and the risk is 26.97% after considering the water resources carrying capacity. This shows that Beijing can better meet the water resources system risk but is still constrained Sexual risk limits can be addressed by cutting costs, adjusting industrial structure and regulating water resources management.