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为评价农业政策与环境拓展APEX模型在淮河中上游坡面尺度的适宜性,将其应用于淮河中上游的3个径流小区,在采用傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法进行灵敏度分析的基础上,利用蒙特卡罗模拟结合多目标函数技术自动校正模型,并使用1982—1986年日径流和产沙数据实测值与模拟值评价模型适宜性。结果表明:湿度条件2下的径流曲线数初始值(CN2)、损耗系数(CNIC)、水土保持措施因子(PEC)以及最大径流率-降雨能量调整因子(APM)对产沙模拟影响较大,CN2和CNIC对地表径流模拟影响较大;在模型校正阶段,径流和产沙日平均模拟值的百分误差绝对值(APE)小于20%,纳希-苏特克利夫有效系数(EF)和R2分别大于0.45和0.55;在模型验证阶段,径流和产沙日平均模拟值的APE小于25%,EF和R2分别大于0.4和0.5。这说明APEX模型适用于淮河中上游坡面尺度,可用于评价该地区不同土地管理措施下的水土流失。
In order to evaluate the suitability of the APEX model in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River to evaluate the agricultural policy and environment, this method was applied to three runoff plots in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River. Based on the sensitivity analysis using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test and expansion method, Monte-Carlo simulation combined with multi-objective function technique was used to automatically calibrate the model. The suitability of model was evaluated by using the measured and simulated daily runoff and sediment yield data from 1982 to 1986. The results showed that the initial values of runoff curve (CN2), loss coefficient (CNIC), soil and water conservation measure factor (PEC) and maximum runoff rate - rainfall energy adjustment factor (APM) CN2 and CNIC have a significant impact on surface runoff simulation. In the model calibration stage, the mean absolute error (APE) of runoff and runoff day simulated values is less than 20%, and the Nash-Sutcliffe effective coefficient (EF) and R2 were greater than 0.45 and 0.55, respectively. During the model verification stage, the average APE of runoff and sediment yield was less than 25% and EF and R2 were greater than 0.4 and 0.5, respectively. This shows that the APEX model is suitable for the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River, which can be used to evaluate the soil and water loss under different land management measures in this area.