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加入欧盟十年来,维谢格拉德四国(波兰、捷克、匈牙利和斯洛伐克)对欧盟的出口比例虽呈下降趋势,但仍有80%左右依赖于欧盟市场,且四国出口产品在欧盟的份额均有一定程度的提高,其中斯洛伐克表现最佳,而匈牙利则提升缓慢。论文通过恒定市场份额分析(CMSA)模型阐释了四国出口欧盟绩效的影响因素,实证结果表明:入盟十年来,维谢格拉德四国在欧盟市场份额的提升主要得益于各国出口产品在细分市场上具有较强的出口竞争力优势,而不是出口结构的优势。波、捷、匈三国出口结构对各自出口绩效的贡献基本呈现中性,较差的产品结构带来的负效应基本上抵消了较优的市场结构带来的正效应;而斯洛伐克的出口结构对其出口绩效贡献了明显的正效应,这主要得益于其较高的市场结构效应。
Ten years into EU, exports to the EU in the Visegrad four countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) have been on a declining trend. However, about 80% still rely on the EU market, and the share of the four countries’ exports in the EU To some extent, Slovakia performed best, while Hungary improved slowly. The empirical results show that the increase of Visegrad’s market share in the European Union during the ten years after the accession was mainly due to the changes in the breakdown of exports by countries The market has a strong export competitiveness, rather than the advantages of export structure. The contribution of export structure of Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary to their respective export performance basically showed neutrality. The negative effect brought by the poorer product structure basically offset the positive effect brought by the superior market structure. However, the export structure of Slovakia Its export performance contributed significant positive effects, mainly due to its higher market structure effect.