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我国房价居高不下的原因是多方面的,其中重要原因之一在于买入外汇发人民币这种货币供给方式。本文从理论上论证了买入外汇增加货币供给的货币发行方式对房价的作用机制,并以协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法进行了实证分析;研究表明,如果不是买外汇发行人民币发行这种方式,误导货币数量与货币流向,无论是人为的投机炒作,还是地方政府的土地财政,都不足以造成房价的持续上升。因此,要稳定房价,就要从源头改变人民币的发行方式做起,把买外汇发人民币转移到买国债上来。
The reasons for the high housing prices in our country are many. One of the important reasons for this is that the money supply method of buying RMB in foreign exchange is RMB. This paper theoretically proves the mechanism of currency issuance by buying foreign exchange to increase the money supply, and conducts an empirical analysis based on cointegration test and Granger causality test. The research shows that if it is not to buy foreign exchange to issue Renminbi Issuing this way, misleading the number of currencies and the flow of money, whether it is artificial speculation, or the local government land finance, are not enough to cause the housing prices continued to rise. Therefore, in order to stabilize housing prices, we must start from changing the way the RMB is issued and transfer RMB to foreign exchange to buy government bonds.