探讨21世纪的卫生服务是医学未来学和卫生发展战略学的重要内容,也是社会医学与卫生管理研究工作者面临的课题。 1 20世纪卫生发展的成就与问题 1.1 寿命的增长 20世纪多数国家的人口期望寿命都有显著的增长(见表1),平均增长40岁。人类的健康出现了前所未有的历史性转变。 经济学家和人口学家认为上述改变与这一时期的农业和工业革命导致经济增长、收入增加和营养改善,以及随之而来的环境卫生及供水设施的完 The discussion of health services in the 21st century is an important part of medical futurology and health development strategy, and it is also a subject faced by researchers in social medicine and health management. 1 Achievements and Problems in Health Development in the 20th Century 1.1 Growth in Lifespan Most countries in the 20th century experienced a significant increase in life expectancy (see Table 1), with an average increase of 40 years. There has been an unprecedented historical shift in human health. Economists and demographers believe that the above changes and the agricultural and industrial revolutions of this period led to economic growth, increased income, improved nutrition, and consequent environmental health and water supply facilities.