针对现行的防洪计算方法大多存在局限性的问题,提出了考虑历史洪水的时历法,推求了历史洪水流量过程线与历史库容重现期,分析了防洪库容序列的分布特性及防洪库容序列连续部分的线型选择,给出了适当的解决方案,并与传统防洪计算方法的统计试验进行比较。结果表明,当历史洪水流量过程线采用按峰值挑选法和按峰量值挑选法推求时,考虑历史洪水的时历法具有较好的估计精度,对防洪库容设计值的估计效果与洪水随机模拟法相当,优于设计洪水过程线法,可用于解决水库防洪计算问题。而样本容量的增长、合理考虑历史洪水信息对提高设计防洪库容估计精度均具有积极意义。 In view of the limitations of the current flood control methods, the paper proposes a calendar method that considers historical floods, deduces the historical flood discharge process line and historical storage capacity, and analyzes the distribution characteristics of flood storage capacity sequence and the continuous part of flood control storage capacity sequence The linear selection gives the appropriate solution and compares them with the statistical tests of traditional flood control methods. The results show that the historical time-history method considering historical floods has better estimation accuracy when the historical flood discharge process line adopts the method of peak selection and peak-quantity selection, and the estimation effect of flood control capacity design value and stochastic simulation method of flood Which is better than the design flood process line method and can be used to solve the reservoir flood control calculation problem. However, the increase of sample size and rational consideration of historical flood information are of positive significance to improve the estimation accuracy of design flood control capacity.