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随着PPP模式在水利工程中的应用越来越多,其风险也越来越突出,为准确评价水利工程PPP项目投资风险,提出基于云模型的模糊综合评价模型。首先建立水利PPP项目投资风险评价指标体系,根据PPP项目库专家的反馈,确定评价指标重要性程度标准表和风险评价等级标准表,然后由PPP项目专家对各评价指标进行定量评分和定性权重,再计算云参数,确定水利PPP项目投资风险模糊综合评价云模型,通过观察云图判断投资风险可接受程度等级。在湖南省莽山水库PPP项目的应用结果表明,该方法可为水利PPP项目投资风险论证提供一定的理论指导。
With the increasing use of the PPP model in water conservancy projects, the risks are becoming more and more prominent. In order to accurately evaluate the investment risk of PPP projects in water conservancy projects, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on cloud models is proposed. Firstly, the index system of investment risk assessment of water conservancy PPP project is set up. According to the feedback from experts in PPP project, the criteria table of importance of evaluation index and the standard table of risk assessment grade are established. Then, PPP project experts quantitatively evaluate each index and qualitative weight, Calculate the cloud parameters again, determine the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation cloud model of investment risk of water conservancy PPP project, and judge the acceptable level of investment risk by observing the cloud chart. The application of PPP project in Mangshan Reservoir in Hunan Province shows that this method can provide some theoretical guidance for the investment risk demonstration of water conservancy PPP project.