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目的分析浙江省鼠密度对肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病率的影响,为疾病防制措施的制定提供依据。方法收集浙江省2005年1月至2014年12月的鼠密度监测资料及HFRS发病率资料,应用Spearman相关以及线性回归方法进行数据分析。结果浙江省近10年年平均鼠密度为0.88%,褐家鼠为优势鼠种,占总捕鼠数的51.16%;鼠密度与滞后1~4个月的HFRS发病率有相关性,相关系数分别为0.247、0.369、0.328和0.213(P<0.05),回归系数检验差异有统计学意义(R2=0.106、0.167、0.134和0.067,P<0.05)。鼠密度每增加1%,滞后1~4个月的HFRS发病率分别增加0.326/10万、0.409/10万、0.367/10万和0.258/10万。结论浙江省鼠密度影响HFRS发病率,主要体现为滞后效应,应长期开展鼠密度监测,科学实施灭鼠防鼠工作。
Objective To analyze the influence of rat density in Zhejiang Province on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and provide basis for the establishment of disease prevention measures. Methods The data of rodent density monitoring and incidence of HFRS from January 2005 to December 2014 in Zhejiang Province were collected. The data were analyzed by Spearman correlation and linear regression. Results The average annual rat density in Zhejiang Province was 0.88% in the recent 10 years. Rattus norvegicus was the predominant mouse species, accounting for 51.16% of the total number of rats. The correlation between the rat density and the incidence of HFRS lagged 1 to 4 months was found. The correlation coefficient 0.247,0.369,0.328 and 0.213 respectively (P <0.05). The regression coefficient test showed significant difference (R2 = 0.106,0.167,0.134,0.067, P <0.05). For every 1% increase in rat density, the incidence of HFRS lagged 1 to 4 months increased by 0.326 / 100,000, 0.409 / 100,000, 0.367 / 100,000 and 0.258 / 100,000, respectively. Conclusion The rat density of HFRS affects the incidence of HFRS in Zhejiang province, which is mainly manifested as lag effect. It is necessary to monitor the density of rats for a long period of time and conduct rodent control and rodent-killing work scientifically.