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本文对文献计量学数学模型统和一概率分布进行了分析,比较和研究。在此基础上,提出存在问题与发展趋势. 文献计量学统一概率模型的研究主要是关于布拉德福—齐普夫分布系的统计机理和数学基础的研究,所以更准确的提法应该是布—齐分布系概率模型的研究。随着研究范围的扩大和研究内容的深入,文献计量学研究的大部分内容:如词频分布研究,引文分析研究、科学预测管理、科技文献增长、老化研究等都直接或间接地与布—齐分布系相联系,因而使布—齐分布系的数学基础几乎成为整个文献计量学基础。对于布拉德福—齐普夫分布系,各国学者们进行了大量的研究.有的在深入理解布—齐分布系理论的同时,进而探求更普遍、更精确的分布函数式,有的注重分析不同公式之间的有机联系,以确定布—齐分布系诸公式之间内在的等价性;而更有—大批学者,则力图从不同的角度,运用不同的手段和方法去阐明形成布—齐分布系的基本机制,建立布—分布系共同的数学基础和统一概率模型。他们不满足仅仅描述各式各样的经验数据集合,而更希望能够解释造成这些现象的原因和机理,进而能预测和控制这些现象的发生、发展。西蒙(H·A·Simon)[2]、普赖斯(D·J·de S·Price)[3]、希尔(B·Hill)[4]、布鲁克斯(B·C·Brookes)[5]、西切尔(H·S·Sichel)[6]等都是这一研究领域的著名学者.他们提出了许多概率分布模型,例如:负二次分布、修正几何分布以及贝塔分布等,使用了一些著名的理论概率函数,如费希尔(Fisher)、尤勒(Yule)、波雷尔—塔纳(Borel-Tanner)、泊松(Poisson)、黎曼(Riemn)、高斯(Gauss)和华林(Waring)等等,试图去模拟文献计量学及社会科学中的各类布拉德福现象(Modeling The Bradford Phenomenon)[7] 第国在这方面的理论研究工作租展得很不够,大多数作者的研究仍停留在对布拉福、齐普夫分布函数本身的研讨而对对布—齐分布系的理论基础、概率模型的研究则寥寥无几。笔者回顾了80年代以来、我国文献计量化方面的研究,发现仅马费城同志一篇论文——“布拉德福—齐昔夫分布系的概率模型”[8]论及这一领域,因此,大力开展对文献计量学理论基础的研究,以推动我国文献计量化研究的深入发展,诚然是我国情报理论界的当务之急。
In this paper, we analyze, compare and study the unification and probability distribution of a bibliometrics model. Based on this, the existing problems and the development trend are put forward.The research on the unified probability model of bibliometrics mainly focuses on the statistical mechanism and mathematical basis of the Bradford-Zepf distribution system, so a more accurate formulation should be Research on the Probability Model of the cloth - Qi Distribution System. With the expansion of the scope of the study and the deepening of the research content, most of the contents of the bibliometrics research include the frequency distribution research, the citation analysis research, the scientific forecast management, the scientific and technological literature growth, the aging research, etc. directly or indirectly Distribution system, so that the cloth - Qi distribution of mathematical basis almost become the basis of the entire bibliometrics. For the Bradford-Zipf distribution system, scholars from all over the world have done a great deal of research, and some have a deeper understanding of the theory of cloth-zigzag distribution, and then explore more general and accurate distribution function formulas, Analyze the organic relations between different formulas to determine the internal equivalence between the formulas of cloth-Qi distribution; and more - a large number of scholars, try to clarify the formation of cloth from different angles, using different means and methods - Qi distribution system of the basic mechanism to establish cloth - distribution system common mathematical basis and unified probability model. They are not satisfied with merely describing a wide range of empirical data sets. They also hope to explain the causes and mechanisms that cause these phenomena and thus predict and control the occurrence and development of these phenomena. Simon A. [2], Price · de S · Price [3], Hill · 4, BC Brookes [5] , S Sichel, [6], and others are well-known scholars in this field of research, and they present many probability distribution models such as negative quadratic distribution, modified geometric distribution and beta distribution, etc. Some well-known theoretical probability functions such as Fisher, Yule, Borel-Tanner, Poisson, Riemn, Gauss, And Waring, trying to simulate the various types of Modeling The Bradford Phenomenon in bibliometrics and social sciences [7]. The theoretical studies in this field have not been rented out enough , Most of the author’s research still stays in the study of the distribution function of Braboo and Zipf and on the theoretical basis of the distribution of the cloth-Qi, the research of probability model is very few. The author reviews the research on the quantification of Chinese literature since the 1980s and found that only one article by Martin Fehrenstein - “The Probabilistic Model of the Bradford-Scheffler Distribution System” [8] deals with this field and therefore , Vigorously carry out research on the basis of bibliometrics theory in order to promote the in-depth development of the measurement of the literature in our country, it is true that the top priority of China’s information theory circles.