论文部分内容阅读
2012年以来,在政策主导下国内稻米市场整体保持稳中有涨走势,“稻强米弱”特征贯穿始终,不同时期不同区域呈“南强北弱”、“粳强籼弱”格局;另外,大米市场需求虽然表现平淡,但国内外价格倒挂使得越南、巴基斯坦等国低端大米大量涌入国内,在一定程度上减轻大米加工企业经营压力的同时,市场供应量的放大也继续打压大米行情。进入下半年,随着新季稻谷陆续收获上市,市场供应紧张局面将有所缓解。虽然2012年稻谷最低收购价格水平大幅度上调,但受企业补库、成本提升、农民惜售、政策性粮源库存水平偏低、不利天气增多及病虫害形势严峻等影响,加之当前各品种价格均保持在历史高位水平运行,预计2012年大范围启动稻谷托市收购的可能性不大;另外,主产区新季早籼稻价格高开高走,为之后的中晚籼稻、粳稻收购市场走势提供参考,但届时行情将如何演绎还需重点观察后期生产形势。
Since 2012, under the guidance of policies, the domestic rice market as a whole has maintained a steady growth trend. The characteristics of “strong and weak rice and rice are strong and strong,” and the characteristics of “strong rice and strong rice are weak throughout the whole” Weak "pattern. In addition, although the market demand for rice has been flat, domestic and international price reversals have led to the influx of low-end rice from Vietnam, Pakistan and other countries into the Mainland. To a certain extent, this has lessened the operating pressure on rice processing enterprises. Meanwhile, the market supply Enlarge also continue to suppress the rice market. Into the second half, with the new season rice harvest after another, the market supply situation will be eased. Although the minimum purchase price of rice in 2012 was substantially raised, due to the impact of enterprise replenishment, higher costs, reluctance of farmers to recycle, lower levels of policy-oriented grain stocks, unfavorable weather conditions and the severe situation of pests and diseases, together with the current prices of all varieties maintained In the historical high level operation, it is estimated that it is not possible to start a large-scale acquisition of rice propping up market in 2012; In addition, the prices of early season indica rice in the main producing areas will be higher and higher, which will provide reference for the market trend of later indica rice and japonica rice purchasing. , But then the market will be how to deduce the need to focus on the observation of post-production situation.