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经济周期波动是宏观经济政策的制定、金融机构的资本管理、个人的投资决策等考虑的重要因素之一。简要回顾经济周期理论,评述现代经济周期阶段识别方法的优缺点,重点梳理研究我国经济周期的研究文献,介绍我国经济周期的特点、成因,以期在现有经济周期研究成果基础之上,指出经济周期成因的理论分析及识别方法所碰到的困难,为经济周期因素影响在实际决策中的应用提出建议。
Economic cycle fluctuations are one of the important factors to be considered in the formulation of macroeconomic policies, the capital management of financial institutions, and individual investment decisions. This paper briefly reviews the theory of economic cycle, reviews the advantages and disadvantages of modern economic cycle phase identification methods, focuses on the research literature of China’s economic cycle, introduces the characteristics and causes of the economic cycle in our country, and points out that based on the existing economic cycle research results, The theoretical analysis of the causes of the cycle and the difficulties encountered in the identification methods provide suggestions for the application of the economic cycle factors in the actual decision-making.