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关于近期政府再次将油价上调,引发了很多议论。老百姓最多的批评是,“提价次数频、幅度高”。其实在笔者看来,这实在是错怪了政府。因为提价的根本因素是市场的作用,市场规律可以扭曲,市场趋势可以在一定时期得不到尊重,但市场规律终究要起作用,从根本上看,的确是“没有任何人能够斗得过市场”。所谓市场的作用,我指的是国际油价的持续上扬。从1999年以来,国际原油价格一路上涨,从每桶9.50美元一直上涨至今年3月份的34.37美元,涨幅260%。当时,我曾根据经济学“多重均衡”的思想对油价可能长期居高不下提出过警告,但国内大部分的人对于油价的上升显然是忽视了。许多人认为,油价今日涨明日兴许就会跌,完全不必跟风而动,致使国内市场对于国际油价的波动反应明显滞后。3月份国内成品油的出厂价仅从2280元/吨上升至2620元/吨,批发价从2.13元/升涨到2.40元/升,涨幅仅为15%左右,可以说严重偏离了国际市场价格趋势。这预示着今后必然出现多次提价。
On the recent government once again raise the price of oil, triggered a lot of talk. The most common criticism from ordinary people is that “the frequency of price increases is high and the rate is high.” In fact, in my opinion, this is really the wrong government. Because the fundamental factor for price increases is the role of the market, the market rules can be distorted, and market trends can not be respected for a certain period of time. However, the market rules will eventually work, fundamentally, indeed. “No one can fight Over the market ”. The so-called role of the market, I mean that the international oil prices continued to rise. Since 1999, the international crude oil price has risen all the way from $ 9.50 a barrel to $ 34.37 in March this year, up 260%. At that time, I had warned on the possible long-term rise of oil prices based on the idea of “multiple equilibriums” in economics but most of the people in China were obviously ignoring the rise in oil prices. Many people think that if oil prices rise tomorrow, they will fall, without any follow-up action, resulting in a marked lag in domestic market reaction to fluctuations in international oil prices. In March, the ex-factory price of domestic refined oil rose only from 2,280 yuan / ton to 2,620 yuan / ton, while the wholesale price rose from 2.13 yuan / liter to 2.40 yuan / liter, an increase of only 15%. It can be said that the price deviated from the international market trend. This indicates that there will inevitably be multiple price increases in the future.