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石油对经济生活的重要性不言而喻,中国原油的高对外依存度及集中的进口来源区域引起我们对能源安全的广泛关注,如何有效最小化国际原油价格波动和供应短缺或中断带来的风险,制定突发事件影响下的最佳采购策略是我们必需关注的焦点,但目前结合突发事件的采购策略研究还不足。论文通过采用符合中国原油进口习惯的月度数据,建立了突发事件下的CVaR模型,综合考虑价格波动、供应中断造成的GDP冲击和战略石油储备因素,分析三种不同突发事件情景下的原油进口采购策略。研究表明:当预期中东区域出现危机时,非洲和欧洲/俄罗斯是增加采购量的理想选择,若迪拜价格波动不剧烈,亚太采购量也可适当增加;对于仅仅只有价格变动,动用战略石油储备降低风险有限,只有当供给中断时,动用战略储备才能发挥巨大的降低风险,更好的减少对国民经济冲击的作用。本文在最小化原油进口风险值且同时考虑进口来源多样化、风险、成本及价格变动率的情况下,构建的基于CVaR的应急原油进口采购策略模型,丰富了该领域的研究成果,为中国原油进口采购策略提供了具体可操作的参考。
The Importance of Oil for Economic Life It goes without saying that the high degree of foreign dependence on Chinese crude oil and the concentrated source of imports have drawn our attention to energy security and how to effectively minimize the fluctuation caused by international crude oil prices and supply shortages or disruptions Risk and make the best purchasing strategy under the influence of emergent events are the focus we must pay attention to, however, the research on the purchasing strategy combining emergencies is not enough at present. By adopting the monthly data which accords with the habit of Chinese crude oil imports, the paper establishes a CVaR model under emergencies, considering the impact of price fluctuation, GDP impact caused by supply disruption and strategic oil reserve, and analyzes the crude oil under three different emergency scenarios Import procurement strategy. Research shows that Africa and Europe / Russia are ideal for increasing purchases when the crisis in the Middle East is expected. If the price in Dubai is not volatile, the volume of purchases in Asia Pacific may also be appropriately increased. For strategic changes in oil prices, The risk is limited. Only when the supply is interrupted can we use strategic reserves to exert tremendous risk reduction and better reduce the impact on the national economy. In this paper, under the condition of minimizing the value of crude oil import risk and taking into account diversification of import sources, risk, cost and price change rate, the CVaR-based emergency crude oil import procurement strategy model enriched the research results in this field. Import procurement strategy provides a specific operational reference.