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概率地震危险性分析(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis,PSHA)的目的是表现场点处所有地震动的发生频率。其基本假设是用真实存在的危险性曲线来表达场点处任一地震动振幅的超越频率。在程序上,PSHA依赖于对地震活动与地面运动模型相结合的完整且准确的描述,并采用标准概率方法去评估危险性曲线。改进输入参数和识别并解决观测数据与估算危险性之间的差异,可以实现对危险性曲线的改进。然而,这种差异并不能否定危险性曲线的存在或者用于估算该曲线的概率理论。
The purpose of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is to represent the frequency of all ground motions at a site. The basic assumption is to use real-life risk curves to express the over-frequency of any ground motion amplitude at a field point. Programmatically, the PSHA relies on a complete and accurate description of the combination of seismicity and ground motion models and uses standard probabilistic methods to assess hazard curves. Improving the input parameters and identifying and resolving the discrepancy between the observed data and the estimated risk can lead to improvements in the hazard profile. However, this difference does not negate the existence of a hazard curve or the probability theory used to estimate the curve.