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替代参数的合理估计是应用CES生产函数进行经济活动分析首要前提。而现有研究现有关于上海市三大产业生产函数替代参数的估计,使得后续研究缺乏必要的依据。本文以各统计年鉴中上海经济统计数据为基础,结合CES生产函数一阶优化条件式中的经济变量进行数据的处理,采用贝叶斯方法估计出CES生产函数假设下的上海市三大产业的替代弹性,从而为相关研究提供了可行的方法和可信的参数。
Reasonable estimation of alternative parameters is the premise for economic activity analysis using CES production function. However, the existing studies on the estimation of substitution parameters of the three major industrial production functions in Shanghai present the necessary basis for subsequent research. Based on the Shanghai economic statistics of each statistical yearbook and the economic variables in the first-order optimization condition of the CES production function, the data are processed in this paper. The Bayesian method is used to estimate the three major industries in Shanghai under the assumption of CES production function The flexibility of substitution, which provides feasible methods and credible parameters for related research.