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随着经济的发展和人们膳食结构的调整,鸡肉在我国居民的肉类消费中占有越来越重要的地位,其消费量也有了很大提高。但受多种因素影响,活鸡价格在波动中上升,导致鸡肉价格也在波动中上涨。价格的大幅波动和过快增长,将影响到养鸡行业的健康发展,也将影响到居民的鸡肉消费量。考虑到数据资料的可获性和活鸡价格与鸡肉价格的高度关联性,本文采用X12季节调整法和HP滤波法对活鸡价格的波动进行研究,分析活鸡价格的季节变化、不规则变化、趋势变化和周期变化,从中总结出活鸡价格波动的成因,并提出相应的对策建议。
With the development of economy and the adjustment of people’s dietary structure, chicken occupies an increasingly important position in the meat consumption of Chinese residents, and its consumption has also been greatly increased. However, due to many factors, the price of live chickens has risen in fluctuation and the price of chickens has risen amid fluctuations. The sharp fluctuations in prices and excessive growth will affect the healthy development of the chicken industry and will also affect residents’ consumption of chicken meat. Taking into account the availability of data and the high correlation between live chicken price and chicken price, this paper uses the X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to study the fluctuation of live chicken price, and analyzes the season change and irregular change of live chicken price , Trends and cyclical changes, summarizes the causes of fluctuations in the price of live chickens and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.