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基于31省的经济发展、社会发展、人口指标等统计数据,建立了影响手机用户普及率的线性回归模型,得出了影响手机用户普及率的关键因素,并以湖南的数据为基础对模型进行了实证。同时,基于三寡头静态需求模型,并根据NASH均衡的特性,构建了移动电话新增市场需求模型,基于双寡头动态博弈模型,构建了移动电话新增市场动态需求模型。本文认为,移动电话市场普及率与当地的经济发展水平息息相关。移动电话新增市场是充分竞争市场,目前主要表现为价格竞争。在价格竞争的前提下,若先行动者的价格水平小于或等于某一常数,先行动者将获得先发优势。但是,价格对于移动电话市场需求的作用最终将受制于移动电话的现实普及率,受制于当地的经济发展水平、人口构成情况、人口增长情况和人口流动流动情况。
Based on the statistical data of 31 provinces such as economic development, social development and population index, a linear regression model affecting the penetration rate of mobile phone users was established. The key factors influencing the penetration rate of mobile phone users were obtained. Based on the data of Hunan Province, Empirical. At the same time, based on the static demand model of the three oligarchs, and according to NASH equilibrium characteristics, a new market demand model for mobile phones is constructed. Based on the duopoly oligarchic dynamic game model, a dynamic demand model for the market of mobile phones is constructed. This paper argues that the penetration rate of the mobile phone market is closely related to the local economic development level. The new mobile phone market is a fully competitive market, mainly for the current price competition. Under the premise of price competition, if the price level of the first-mover is less than or equal to a certain constant, the first-mover will have the first-mover advantage. However, the role of price in mobile phone market demand will eventually be constrained by the realistic penetration rate of mobile phones, subject to local economic development, population composition, population growth and the movement of population.