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为了准确评价中国公路客运安全状况,研究了长途客车交通事故现状,利用反力式滚筒制动试验台对长途客运车辆制动性能进行检测,采用大样本数据采集、多变量数据分析及数学建模等技术手段,分析了典型长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能分布,同时给出车辆多项制动性能的最优拟合分布及分布参数的最优估计值,并建立了相应的制动性能统计模型。分析结果表明:中国公路客运万车死亡率和亿车公里死亡率分别为26.828人.万车-1与6.555人.(亿车.km)-1,事故率仍然偏高;长途大客车和轻型客车各项制动性能均服从Weibull分布;统计模型计算结果与样本实测结果的相对误差均未超过2.378%,因此,所建模型计算结果准确可靠。
In order to evaluate the safety status of Chinese road passenger traffic accurately, the status quo of traffic accidents on long-distance buses was studied. The test of braking performance of long-distance passenger vehicles was carried out by using reaction type drum brake test stand. Large sample data collection, multivariate data analysis and mathematical modeling And other technical means, the analysis of the typical long-distance bus and light bus performance of the brake distribution, given a number of vehicle braking performance of the best fitting distribution and distribution parameters of the optimal estimate, and the establishment of the corresponding system Dynamic Performance Statistics Model. The results of the analysis show that the death toll and death toll of road vehicles in China are respectively 26.828 million, -100 and 6.555 (100 million km) -1, the accident rate is still high, while the long-distance buses and light-duty The braking performance of passenger cars obeyed the Weibull distribution. The relative error between the calculated results of the statistical model and the actual measured results of the passenger cars did not exceed 2.378%. Therefore, the calculated results of the proposed model were accurate and reliable.