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水资源短缺影响黄淮海平原农业稳定和可持续发展。气候变化情景下,农业用水紧张的问题可能进一步加剧,种植制度和作物品种区域布局将面临调整。论文利用IPCC 5三种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5)的多模式集成数据,基于VIP(soilVegetation-atmosphere Interface Processes)生态水文模型,模拟了2011—2059年黄淮海平原二级子流域的水资源盈亏变化。在此基础上,针对水分亏缺最严重的子流域,设计无外来调水和维持2000—2010年调水总量水平的两种流域地下水采补均衡情景,对冬小麦种植区域的合理布局及其对产量的影响进行评估。结果表明,2050年代黄淮海平原农作物蒸散量增幅大于降雨量增幅,北部地区水分亏缺量将增加,南部地区水分盈余量则减少。在低到高的排放情景下,全区域水分盈余量下降0.1%~14.1%。两种地下水采补均衡情景下,2050年代黄淮海平原冬小麦种植面积应分别减少9.8%~11.3%和7.0%~8.8%,相应产量分别增加0~11.9%和3.0%~15.9%。适当减少冬小麦种植面积,可有效减缓黄淮海地区农业水资源的不足,保护生态环境,促进农业可持续发展。
Water Shortage Affects Agricultural Stability and Sustainable Development in Huang - Huai - Hai Plain. Under the climate change scenario, the problem of water shortage in agriculture may be further aggravated, and the regional distribution of planting systems and crop varieties will face adjustment. In this paper, based on the multi-model integrated data of IPCC 5 emission patterns (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the VIP (soilVegetation-atmosphere Interface Processes) eco-hydrological model, Change of Profit and Loss of Water Resources in Second Grade Subbasin Plain. On the basis of this, aiming at the sub-catchment with the most severe water deficit, this paper designs a groundwater recharge equalization scenario without external water diversion and maintaining the total amount of water diversion from 2000 to 2010 and the reasonable layout of winter wheat planting area and its The impact of production is evaluated. The results show that the increase of crop evapotranspiration in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in 2050 is larger than the increase of rainfall, the water deficit in northern part will increase and the surplus of southern part will decrease. In the low-to-high emission scenario, the surplus of surplus water in the whole region decreased by 0.1% ~ 14.1%. Under the two balanced groundwater recharge scenarios, the winter wheat acreage in the Huanghuaihai Plain in the 2050s should be reduced by 9.8% -11.3% and 7.0% -8.8% respectively, with corresponding increases of 0-11.9% and 3.0% -15.9% respectively. Proper reduction of winter wheat acreage can effectively reduce the shortage of agricultural water resources in Huang-Huai-Hai region, protect the ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of agriculture.