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本文从改革风险的角度研究转型方式的决定问题,以宪法性秩序是否崩溃为线索,将中俄为代表的两种转型方式概括为转型的平滑模式和突变模式,提出了转型方式综合因素决定理论,具体指出了转型的初始条件和改革策略各自在转型方式决定中的作用。制约着改革策略选择的初始条件包括原计划体制的结构、外部环境、改革时机三个因素,三者的交集决定着改革的策略空间。能够直接决定转型方式的改革策略,包括寻求改革“合法性”的处理方式、改革时序安排、掌握改革主导权、对社会利益分化的调控四个方面。中国在前三个方面都采取了正确的策略并且已经取得成功,但是第四个方面的风险正在积聚和加大。
This article studies the decision-making of the transition mode from the perspective of the reform risk, clues as to whether the constitutional order has collapsed or not, summarizes the two transition modes represented by China and Russia as the smooth mode and the abrupt transition mode and proposes the comprehensive determinants of transition mode , Specifically pointed out the initial conditions for the reform and reform strategies in the role of the decision of the mode of transformation. The initial conditions that constrain the choice of reform strategy include the three factors of the structure of the original planning system, the external environment and the timing of the reform. The intersection of the three determines the strategic space for reform. It can directly determine the reform strategy of the transformation mode, including four aspects: seeking the ways of reform “legitimacy”, reforming the timing arrangement, mastering the leading power of reform and regulating the social interests differentiation. China has adopted the right strategy in the first three aspects and has achieved success, but the fourth aspect of the risk is accumulating and increasing.