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为综合评价尾矿库的安全状态,基于尾矿库灾变机理和大量工程实践构建了一套包括3级指标、22个因素的评价指标体系,并确定了评价指标的等级量值区间。采用EAHP和熵权法结合的方式确定指标权重,基于可拓理论评价尾矿库的安全等级。以湖南黄金集团责任有限公司旗下的7座尾矿库为案例,评价其安全状态,根据蒙特卡洛模拟基本理论,基于Crystal Ball对案例进行敏感性分析,找出具体敏感因素,为后期尾矿库安全管理提供简单有效的控制方法。
In order to comprehensively evaluate the safety status of tailing ponds, a set of evaluation index system including three levels of indicators and 22 factors was constructed based on the catastrophic mechanism of tailings ponds and a large number of engineering practices. The grade range of evaluation indexes was also determined. EAHP and entropy method are combined to determine the index weights, and the safety rating of tailings ponds is evaluated based on extension theory. Based on the case study of 7 tailings mines owned by Hunan Gold Group Co., Ltd., the safety status was evaluated. According to the basic theory of Monte Carlo simulation, the sensitivity analysis was carried out on the basis of Crystal Ball to find the specific sensitive factors, Library Security Management provides a simple and effective method of control.