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以四川省水电投资与其经济发展的关系为例,以研究水电投资建设期对区域经济的影响为目的,运用投入产出法分析了水电投资对社会总产值、对相关行业、以及对就业的影响。分析结果显示:水电投资1万元,会带动四川省总产值的增长约3.46万元;在对相关行业的影响上,四川省水电投资对机械工业的带动作用最大,投资弹性为1.9%;对社会服务业的影响也较大,投资弹性为1.56%;排在第三位的是电子及通信设备制造业,投资弹性为1.41%。1997年四川省水电投资建设期对其就业的带动作用最大,增加了83.52万人的就业量。最后,运用了时间序列分析法自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)对未来四川省的投入产出情况进行了预测,根据未来的水电投资计划安排,计算出四川省2005年、2010年、2015年由于水电投资带来的总产值的增量分别为1.57%,2.13%和2.24%(以2000年为基期)。以上分析结果表明水电投资建设期对当地经济将产生重要的带动作用。
Taking the relationship between investment in hydropower and its economic development in Sichuan Province as an example, this paper uses the input-output method to analyze the impact of hydropower investment on total social output, on related industries and on employment in order to study the impact of hydropower investment construction period on the regional economy. . The results of the analysis show that the investment of 10,000 yuan in hydropower will lead to an increase of 34,600 yuan in total output value in Sichuan Province. In terms of the impact on relevant industries, hydropower investment in Sichuan Province will have the greatest impact on the machinery industry with an investment elasticity of 1.9% The impact of social services was also larger with an investment elasticity of 1.56%. The third place was in the electronics and communications equipment manufacturing industry, with an investment elasticity of 1.41%. In 1997, the construction period of hydropower investment in Sichuan Province had the most effect on employment and increased the employment volume of 835,200. Finally, using the time series analysis autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) to predict the future input-output of Sichuan Province, according to the future investment plan of hydropower, Sichuan Province calculated in 2005, 2010, 2015 due to The increase in total output generated from investment in hydropower was 1.57%, 2.13% and 2.24% respectively (based on 2000). The above analysis shows that hydropower investment in the construction period will have an important leading role in the local economy.