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人口红利所谓人口红利,按照中国社科院人口与劳动经济所所长蔡昉的说法,指从事经济活动的人口不断增加带来的高生产率与高储蓄率导致的较高的资本积累。“生之者众、食之者寡”的人口年龄结构对经济增长的贡献,即为人口红利。人口红利的形成取决于三个因素的共同作用。人口多只是经济发展的一个背景条件,劳动人口多并不等于人口红利。另外两个条件,一是经济持续快速增长,提供巨大的劳动力需求,使劳动力有机会和资本结合;二是劳动力供给的增长大于劳动力需求的增长,存在一个强大的后备军推动经济的进一步增长。没有这个后备军,经济就会进入均衡状态,人口红利将消失。
Demographic dividend The so-called demographic dividend, according to Cai Yong, director of the Population and Labor Economics Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, refers to the high capital accumulation caused by the high productivity and high savings rate brought by the increasing economic activity. The contribution of the age structure of the population to the economic growth of the “population of the few who live, those who eat less” is the demographic dividend. The formation of the demographic dividend depends on the synergy of the three factors. Population growth is more than a background of economic conditions, the working population is not equal to the demographic dividend. The other two conditions are the sustained and rapid economic growth, the huge labor demand, the combination of labor and capital opportunities. The second is that the growth of labor supply is greater than the growth of labor demand, and the existence of a mighty reserve army will promote further economic growth. Without this reserve army, the economy will enter a state of equilibrium and demographic dividends will disappear.