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目的 探索枚举法在暗娼基数估计中的应用 ,并对四川省乐山市中心城区暗娼基数进行估计。方法 采用枚举法 ,根据不同街道暗娼的密集程度分层抽样调查 ,计算各层调查样本的均数、标准差、95 %可信区间 ;推算、汇总 ,获得目标人群的估计数。结果 以不同街道暗娼密集程度分层计算 ,估计乐山市中心城区暗娼总数 175 6人 ;以高危场所规模分层计算 ,估计乐山市中心城区暗娼总数 14 0 5人。结论 街道暗娼密集程度和高危场所规模都可作为枚举法抽样调查的依据 ,但在大型城市宜按街道暗娼密集度分层抽样调查。在中、小型城市宜按高危场所规模分层抽样调查 ,使结果更稳定、可信。
Objective To explore the application of the enumeration method in the estimation of the number of female sex workers and to estimate the number of female sex workers in downtown Leshan, Sichuan Province. Methods The enumeration method was used to stratify sample survey according to the intensity of different commercial sex workers. The mean, standard deviation and 95% confidence intervals of the survey samples at all levels were calculated. The estimates of the target groups were estimated and summarized. Results The stratified calculation was made according to the concentration of female sex workers in different streets. It was estimated that there were 175 6 female sex workers in central districts of Leshan City. Based on the scale of high-risk places, the total number of female sex workers in downtown Leshan was estimated to be 504. Conclusion The concentration of street sex workers and the scale of high-risk places can all be used as the basis for sample survey of enumeration method. However, in large cities, stratified sampling survey should be conducted according to the concentration of street female prostitutes. In medium and small cities should be based on the scale of high-risk sites stratified sampling survey, the result is more stable and credible.