从实践需求出发 ,在合理划分预测单位、设置预测前提、简化预测参数、确定预测方法的基础上 ,建立了空中突击效果的预测模型 ,以便对特定目标在某一时刻遭到突击后 ,预测其在任一后续时间点上所产生的突击效果。为确保模型的可行性及有效性 ,还进行了必要的算例验证。结果表明 ,该模型的提出 ,为战役计划人员有效使用战役突击力量、合理制定战役计划 ,尤其是空中进攻战役计划 ,提供了必要的数学分析手段 Based on the practical needs, this paper establishes a forecasting model of air assault effect based on the reasonable division of forecasting units, setting of forecasting premise, simplification of forecasting parameters and determination of forecasting methods, so as to predict the impact of a specific target at a certain moment At any subsequent point in time on the resulting surprise effect. In order to ensure the feasibility and effectiveness of the model, the necessary examples were also verified. The results show that the proposed model provides the necessary mathematical analysis means for the campaign planners to effectively use the campaign assault force and to formulate the battle plan, especially the air offensive plan