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准确地预测装备备件需求是合理有效进行各项保障工作的基础,通过分析现有常用的器材消耗预测方法,针对装甲装备维修保障的特点,假设在已收集某类备件消耗数据的基础上,选取基于时间序列的指数平滑法对装甲装备维修保障器材消耗预测进行了研究。同时,针对平滑指数的选取问题,以最小预测方差为优化目标,构建了基于Anylogic的仿真优化模型,并最后通过具体案例应用,对计算方法进一步的说明和检验,结果反映出:当器材消耗量平稳变化时,此法具有较高的准确度;当器材消耗量变化较大时,预测结果存在较大偏差。
Accurately forecasting the demand for equipment spare parts is the basis for carrying out all kinds of safe work reasonably and effectively. Based on the analysis of existing commonly used equipment consumption prediction methods and the characteristics of the maintenance and repair of armored equipment, based on the collected consumption data of some kinds of spare parts, Based on the time series exponential smoothing method to predict the armored equipment maintenance support equipment consumption. At the same time, in view of the selection of the smoothness index, the optimization prediction model based on Anylogic is established based on the minimum prediction variance. At last, the concrete case is used to illustrate and test the calculation method. The results show that when the equipment consumption This method has a higher accuracy when the change is steady. When the consumption of equipment is changed a lot, the prediction result has a big deviation.