针对堤防工程是一个复杂的系统工程且影响其失事的因素很多,采用事故树理论逐层分解了失事原因,从而辨识影响堤防失事的风险因素,并将基本事件的发生概率作为模糊数进行处理,用三角形模糊函数代替确定概率,利用模糊数计算方法求得堤防失事风险的模糊概率,通过对各影响因素的重要度分析和敏感性分析获得了影响堤防失事的关键因素。可供堤防设计、施工和管理参考。 The embankment project is a complex system engineering and affects many factors. The accident tree theory is used to decompose the cause of the accident layer by layer to identify the risk factors that affect the embankment failure. The probability of occurrence of the basic event is treated as the fuzzy number, The triangular fuzzy function is used to replace the deterministic probability, and the fuzzy probability of embankment risk is calculated by the method of fuzzy number. The key factors that affect the embankment failure are obtained through the analysis of importance degree and sensitivity of each factor. For embankment design, construction and management reference.