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谣言大规模扩散给社会造成了不良影响甚至严重危害,引发了学术界和政府的高度关注.通过分析群体正负双重社会强化效用对个体传播行为的影响,构建了谣言传播动力学模型,计算了平衡点和基本再生数,并运用Lyapunov函数法、Routh-Hurwitz稳定判据与复合矩阵等方法讨论了平衡点渐进稳定性.理论分析证明,当基本再生数不大于1时,谣言迅速消失,无谣言平衡点全局渐进稳定,否则谣言传播扩散,非零谣言平衡点全局渐进稳定.新浪微博仿真实验发现,在双重社会强化效用影响下,提高个体对谣言独立甄别能力有助于谣言由大规模扩散向迅速消失趋势转移;只有当抑制谣言传播的社会负强化足够大时,才能迅速终止谣言持续传播.
The massive spread of rumors has brought adverse or even serious harm to the society and has aroused great concern of academia and government.Through analyzing the influence of double positive and negative social groups on individual communication behavior, a rumor propagation dynamics model is constructed and calculated The equilibrium point and the number of basic regeneration, and the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point is discussed by means of Lyapunov function method, Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion and composite matrix, etc. The theoretical analysis proves that rumors disappear rapidly when the number of basic regeneration is not more than 1, Rumors equilibrium point asymptotic stability, otherwise spread of rumors spread, non-zero rumors balanced point asymptotic stability.Sina microblogging simulation experiments found that under the influence of double social enhancement, to improve individual independent screening ability of rumors helps rumors from large-scale The proliferation shifted to a rapidly disappearing trend; the spread of rumors was quickly halted only when the negative socialization that suppresses the spread of rumors was sufficiently large.