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2016年作为供给侧改革的第一年,供给侧改革需要需求侧的对应和提升,从而构成新的经济增长点。国家“十三五”规划提出了“发挥消费对增长的基础作用,着力扩大居民消费”。消费的增长依赖于消费信贷的拓展,因为消费信贷的行为特征决定居民采用信贷方式进行消费的规模。消费信贷行为的路径特征直接影响消费的形成和发展潜力。消费信贷行为有助于供给侧的实现,而供给侧变革和创新能够创造出新的消费产品和服务消费,拓展居民消费的选择范畴,从而扩大消费规模。经过检验,我国居民消费信贷行为具有长记忆性。这种长记忆性使得政府的相关调控措施对后续消费信贷的发展具有持续稳定的影响,并进一步传递到消费行为,从而影响经济的长期发展。并促进供给侧改革与消费信贷行为形成的消费水平相互推进。
As the first year of supply-side reform in 2016, supply-side reform needs the demand-side correspondence and promotion, thus constituting a new economic growth point. The national “Thirteen Five-Year Plan” has put forward the principle of “giving full play to consumption and focusing on expanding resident consumption.” The growth of consumption depends on the expansion of consumer credit because the behavioral characteristics of consumer credit determine the scale of residents’ consumption by credit. The path characteristics of consumer credit behavior directly affect the formation and development potential of consumption. Consumer credit behavior helps the realization of the supply side, while supply-side change and innovation can create new consumer products and services consumption, expand the scope of consumer choice, thereby expanding the scale of consumption. After testing, China’s consumer credit behavior has long memory. This long memory makes the relevant government control measures on the follow-up consumer credit development has a sustained and stable impact, and further passed to the consumer behavior, thus affecting the long-term economic development. And promote the supply-side reform and consumer credit formation formed by the consumption level mutual promotion.