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目的 分析和比较鄱阳湖区日本血吸虫病控制中化疗和灭螺措施的边际效果。方法 以化疗和灭螺药物的投入和其他变量为自变量,人群感染率的自然对数值为因变量,以逐步回归建立回归方程。利用回归方程分析血吸虫病控制中化疗和灭螺的当前和滞后边际效益,用方差分析对其进行比较。结果 经检验回归方程[ln(RATE_(KT))=0.101+0.924×ln(RATE_(KT1))-2.356E-04×PQT_(KT1)/RATE_(KT1)-1.18E-03×NICO_(KT)/RISKAREA_(KT)+1.781E-03×RISKAREA_(KT)+2.964E-02×LIVESTOCK_(KT)]具有统计学显著性意义,R~2=0.735,P<0.01。t检验表明,化疗和灭螺的当前和累积边际效果差异均有显著性。结论 灭螺的边际效益高于化疗,与在化疗上的投入相比,灭螺需要投入更多的资源。
Objective To analyze and compare the marginal effects of chemotherapy and molting in the control of schistosomiasis japonica in Poyang Lake area. Methods The natural logarithm of the infection rate of the population was taken as the independent variable with the inputs of chemotherapy and molluscicide as the independent variables and the regression equation was established by stepwise regression. Regression equations were used to analyze the current and delayed marginal benefits of chemotherapy and snail control in schistosomiasis control and compared using ANOVA. The results were tested by regression equation [ln (RATE_ (KT)) = 0.101 + 0.924 × ln (RATE_ (KT1)) - 2.356E-04 × PQT_ (KT1) / RATE_ (KT1) -1.18E-03 × NICO_ (KT) /RISKAREA_(KT)+1.781E-03×RISKAREA_(KT)+2.964E-02×LIVESTOCK_(KT)] had a statistically significant significance, R ~ 2 = 0.735, P <0.01. t-test showed that there was significant difference between the current and cumulative marginal effects of chemotherapy and snail control. Conclusion The marginal benefit of snail molting is higher than that of chemotherapy. Compared with the chemotherapy, snail molt requires more resources.