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读了《地震》1987年2期“如何推进地震预报的深入探索和实用化”专栏登载的有关意见,很有感触。这里,也谈一谈自己的看法,加入这一讨论。 1983—1985年地震预报方法清理攻关在如下三个方面是有突出贡献的:第一,对各种监视手段的预报效果有了一定的定量认识(如异常量、预报率等),从而可以通过横向对比,择优支持或强化效果比较显著的方法(如地震活动性、地下水、地形变等),整顿提高效果不显著的方法。第二,对各种观测资料的质量问题有了深入认识,特别是发现了不少质
After reading the “Earthquake” 1987 2 “How to Advance the Exploration and Practical Utilization of Earthquake Prediction”, I was very touched. Here, also talk about their own views, to join this discussion. The earthquake prediction methods of 1983-1985 have made outstanding contributions in the following three aspects: First, there is a certain amount of quantitative understanding (such as anomaly, forecast rate, etc.) of the forecasting results of various monitoring instruments so as to pass Horizontal contrast, preferred to support or strengthen the effect of more significant methods (such as seismicity, groundwater, topography, etc.), to improve the effect of rectification is not significant. Second, we have got a deep understanding of the quality of various observation data, especially the discovery of many qualitative