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本文首先计算了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱指数VCI,然后使用Pearson相关系数评价降水与VCI的相关性,基于VCI识别云南省2004-2013年农业干旱事件,最后,与SPEI气象干旱识别结果进行对比分析,在VCI农业干旱识别的基础上,使用干旱频率和干旱面积占比指标分析了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱时空特征。结果表明:降水只是影响VCI指数的关键因素之一;VCI和SPEI指数均能够较好对干旱进行监测并识别典型干旱,但两者的识别结果存在差异;云南省农业干旱频率在春冬两季较高,夏季较低,秋季介于夏季和春冬季之间;春夏冬三季农业干旱频率空间分布较为均匀,秋季农业干旱频率呈南低北高的分布态势,整体上北部干旱频率高于南部;2004-2013年云南省整体干旱面积占比呈现先减小后增加再波动的趋势,春冬两季整体干旱面积占比最高,分别为46.63%和47.18%,呈现下降趋势,夏季整体干旱面积占比最低,为43.81%,呈现上升趋势,秋季整体干旱面积占比介于冬春季和夏季之间,为45.74%,呈现下降趋势。总之,云南省农业干旱春冬易发性最高,影响范围最大,夏季易发性最低,影响范围最小。
This paper first calculates the agricultural drought index VCI from 2004 to 2013 in Yunnan Province, and then uses the Pearson correlation coefficient to evaluate the correlation between precipitation and VCI. Based on the VCI, the agricultural drought events in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2013 are identified. Finally, with the SPEI meteorological drought identification results Based on VCI's identification of agricultural drought, the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2013 were analyzed based on the comparison of drought frequency and drought area. The results show that: precipitation is only one of the key factors that affect the VCI index; VCI and SPEI index are better able to monitor the drought and identify the typical drought, but there is a difference between the two recognition results; Yunnan Province, agricultural drought frequency in spring and winter Higher in summer and lower in summer than in spring and winter. The spatial distribution of agricultural drought frequency in spring, summer and winter was more uniform. The frequency of agricultural drought in autumn was distributed in the south and the lowest in north. On the whole, the frequency of drought in the north was higher than that in the south ; The proportion of total arid area in Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2013 showed the trend of decreasing and then increasing and then fluctuating first. The overall area of drought in spring and winter accounted for the highest proportion, accounting for 46.63% and 47.18% respectively, showing a downward trend. The overall area of drought in summer Accounting for the lowest, accounting for 43.81%, showing an upward trend. The proportion of total drought area in autumn was between 45.74% in winter and spring, showing a downward trend. In short, Yunnan Province has the highest incidence of spring drought in spring and winter, with the largest impact area and the lowest susceptibility in summer and the smallest impact area.