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在玉米市场价格形成过程中,我国玉米期货市场对现货市场具有明显的价格预期效应,表现为滞后3期~5期的期货价是现货价的价格预期。结构方程模型测算显示,宏观因素、国际因素与相关产品价格三个要素对玉米期货价格预期效应具有显著的路径结构关系,且产生直接的正向作用;而期货价格预期效应对期货市场活跃度产生直接的负向作用。与玉米相关产品价格指数相比,我国玉米期货价格预期指数较低,表明玉米市场价格仍有较大的下降空间。
In the process of corn market price formation, the corn futures market in our country has obvious price expectation effect on the spot market. The performance of the futures market price lagging from 3 to 5 periods is the spot price price expectation. The calculation of structural equation model shows that the three factors of macroeconomic factors, international factors and related product prices have a significant path-structure relationship with the anticipated effect of corn futures price, and have a direct positive effect. However, the expectation effect of futures prices has an effect on the futures market activity Direct negative effect. Compared with the price index of corn-related products, China’s corn futures price expectations index is low, indicating that corn market prices still have a greater decline in space.