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目的分析传染病自动预警系统在合肥市运行状况及其在传染病暴发探测中的作用,为完善传染病自动预警系统功能提供依据。方法以合肥市2008年5月1日~2013年4月30日期间传染病自动预警系统发出的预警信号数、法定传染病报告数、传染病暴发疫情及传染病类突发事件作为研究依据,以信号响应率、响应及时性评价运行状况,以预警及时性、灵敏度和突发事件阻断率评价预警效果。结果预警系统共发出预警信号8 958条,99.90%得到响应,92.57%在24h内有响应,响应及时性逐年提高。30起传染病暴发疫情中,预警系统探测到27起并发出预警,预警灵敏度90.00%。44.44%的暴发疫情及时预警。49条聚集性疫情预警信号中,39条未发展为突发事件,突发事件阻断率为79.59%。结论预警系统运行机制操作性强,预警信号响应良好,可初步实现传染病暴发的自动预警,但预警信号滞后,假阳性预警信号较多。
Objective To analyze the operational status of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Hefei city and its role in detection of outbreaks of infectious diseases and provide basis for improving the function of automatic warning system for infectious diseases. Methods Hefei city from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2013 automatic warning system for infectious diseases issued by the number of early warning signals, the number of notifiable infectious diseases, outbreaks of infectious diseases and infectious diseases emergencies as a research basis, The operational status was evaluated by signal response rate and response timeliness, and the early-warning alarm performance was evaluated by timeliness, sensitivity and emergency blocking rate. As a result, a total of 8 958 early-warning signals were sent out by the early-warning system, 99.90% of which were responded, 92.57% of them responded within 24 hours, and the prompt response time increased year by year. Of the 30 outbreaks of infectious diseases, the early warning system detected 27 and issued early warnings with a warning sensitivity of 90.00%. 44.44% of outbreaks were promptly warned. Of the 49 aggregated epidemic warning signals, 39 did not develop into emergencies, and the emergency blocking rate was 79.59%. Conclusion The operational mechanism of early warning system is easy to operate and the response of early warning signal is good. It can initially realize the automatic warning of the outbreak of infectious diseases, but the warning signal lags behind with more false positive warning signals.