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越冬期冻害是影响苹果种植分布和质量形成的主要气象灾害之一。论文利用1961—2014年2 084个气象站点资料和冻害调查数据,基于二分类Logistic回归分别建立了越冬期初冬冻害和极端低温冻害发生的概率预测模型,并按照风险极低、低、中度、高、极高等5个等级进行了空间划分。结果表明:建立的初冬冻害和极端低温冻害风险概率预测模型均通过了Hosmer-Losmer检验,独立样本的预测准确率分别达到了83.6%和91.4%。中国产区苹果的越冬冻害主要以初冬冻害为主,覆盖了除黄河故道和云南产区外的大部分果区,而极端低温冻害主要分布在纬度或海拔较高的环渤海湾北部产区、黄土高原西北部和北疆。两种冻害的高风险区域面积基本相当,中度以上风险面积较大的省份依次为甘肃、辽宁、河北和山西,但苹果种植面积最大的陕西和山东遭遇两种冻害特别是极端低温冻害的风险概率总体较低。
Frozen overwintering is one of the major meteorological disasters that affect the distribution and quality of apple cultivation. Based on the data of 2 084 meteorological stations in 1961-2014 and the frost damage survey data, the paper established the probability prediction model of frost damage and extreme low temperature frost damage at the beginning of wintering based on the dichotomous Logistic regression. According to the data of low risk, low, moderate, High, very high level of five levels of space division. The results showed that the predicted risk models of early frost damage and extreme frost damage all passed the Hosmer-Losmer test, and the prediction accuracy of independent samples reached 83.6% and 91.4% respectively. The overwintering frost damage in apple-growing areas in China is dominated by frost damage in early winter, covering most of the fruit areas except for the old course of the Yellow River and the producing areas in Yunnan. The frost-freezing at extreme low temperatures is mainly distributed in the northern Bohai Bay producing area at latitude or elevation, Northwest Loess Plateau and northern. The areas with high risk of frost damage are basically the same, while the provinces with moderate or above risk area are Gansu, Liaoning, Hebei and Shanxi in sequence, but Shaanxi and Shandong with the largest acreage of apple suffer from two kinds of frost damage, especially extreme low temperature frost damage risk The overall probability is low.