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由于地方政府既是土地资源使用者也是其管理者,为了发展地方经济增加政绩工程,在城市化进程加快的过程中,违法违规管地用地行为时常发生,导致耕地资源减少迅速。中央政府为了进一步保护耕地,规范地方政府管地用地行为,实行了土地行政问责制。为了探求土地行政问责对耕地保护的政策效果,本文以江苏省为例,采用虚拟变量模型,以Eviews为分析工具进行了研究。结果表明:实施土地行政问责后,江苏省第二、三产业每增加1亿元社会固定资产投资可节约耕地0.25hm2,2009-2011年间,土地行政问责共使江苏省节约土地11 739.51hm2,江苏省土地行政问责对耕地保护的短期效果明显。但根据江苏省未来几年发展规划和现有的第二、三产业固定资产投资边际违法耕地占用量的预测结果来看,未来几年(至2015年)江苏省遏制违法占用耕地形势仍然十分严峻。据此,文章提出了加强土地行政问责力度和加快产业结构升级的建议。
Since local governments are both users of land resources and their managers, in order to develop local economy and increase performance projects, land use violations frequently occur in the process of accelerating urbanization, resulting in the rapid reduction of cultivated land resources. In order to further protect the arable land and regulate the use of land by land management by local governments, the central government has implemented the land administration accountability system. In order to explore the policy effect of land administration accountability on cultivated land protection, this paper takes Jiangsu Province as an example, and uses the dummy variable model to study with Eviews as the analysis tool. The results showed that after implementing the accountability of land administration, every additional 100 million yuan investment in social fixed assets in Jiangsu’s secondary and tertiary industries can save 0.25hm2 of cultivated land. Between 2009 and 2011, land administrative accountability has resulted in 11,739.51hm2 of land saved in Jiangsu Province Jiangsu Province, land administration accountability of cultivated land protection short-term effect is obvious. However, based on the development plan of Jiangsu Province in the coming years and the prediction of the amount of cultivated land under illegal infrastructures in the fixed asset investment in the second and third industries, the situation of curbing the illegal occupation of arable land in Jiangsu Province in the next few years (2015) is still very serious . Accordingly, the article put forward suggestions to strengthen the accountability of land administration and speed up the upgrading of the industrial structure.