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利用具备理想分解法特性的D&L简化法,分解了最终需求水平等4个因素对1997—2012年中国行业碳排放变动的影响。结果表明,最终需求水平呈现持续而显著的正向效应,是导致碳排放增加的最重要因素;碳强度表现为持续而显著的负向效应,是导致碳排放减少的唯一因素;投入产出技术一直表现为正向效应;最终需求结构经历了从负向效应逐渐过渡到弱正向效应并最终呈现正向效应的过程。为了实现碳排放总量控制目标,中国应重点实施降低部分关键行业的直接碳排放系数等措施,进一步强化碳强度的负向效应,并辅之以降低影响力系数上升幅度较大行业的比重、优化最终需求结构等结构性减排措施,努力实现投入产出技术及最终需求结构由正向效应向负向效应的转变。
Using the D & L simplification method with the ideal decomposition method, the impact of four factors such as the final demand level on the carbon emissions in China during 1997-2012 is analyzed. The results showed that the final demand level showed a sustained and significant positive effect, which was the most important factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions. The carbon intensity showed a persistent and significant negative effect, which was the only factor leading to the decrease of carbon emissions. Input- Which has been shown as the positive effect. The final demand structure has undergone a gradual transition from the negative effect to the weak positive effect and finally the positive effect. In order to achieve the goal of total carbon emission control, China should focus on measures such as reducing the direct carbon emission factor of some key industries, further strengthen the negative effect of carbon intensity, and reduce the proportion of industries with larger influence coefficients. Optimize the final demand structure and other structural emission reduction measures, and strive to achieve the input-output technology and the final demand structure from the positive effect to the negative effect of the change.