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目的:系统地分析临床各种血液成分的使用情况,找出规律并科学地预测需求量,为预测合理的库存血量提供科学依据。方法:采用IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0软件对上海某三甲综合医院2013年1月—2016年1月临床红细胞和血浆使用情况以及输血人数进行了分析,并使用专家建模器建立模型。结果:残差均为白噪声序列(P>0.05),模型提取了原序列中所有数据信息,模型诊断通过。与实际值相比,平均相对误差基本在8%以内,且预测值均在95%可信区间内,预测模型精度较高,预测效果良好。结论:建立更加适合临床用血的时间序列模型,可克服经验性用血的不足,制定更科学的血液库存计划,实践收到了良好效果。
OBJECTIVE: To systematically analyze the clinical use of various blood components, find out the regularity and scientifically predict the demand, and provide a scientific basis for predicting the reasonable stock of blood. Methods: The clinical use of erythrocytes and plasma and the number of blood transfusions in a Grade A general hospital in Shanghai from January 2013 to January 2016 were analyzed by using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0 software. An expert modeler was used to establish the model. Results: The residuals were all white noise (P> 0.05). The model extracted all the data of the original sequence and the model was diagnosed. Compared with the actual value, the average relative error is basically within 8%, and the predicted value is within 95% confidence interval. The prediction model has higher accuracy and good prediction effect. Conclusion: Establishing a time series model that is more suitable for clinical use of blood can overcome the shortcomings of empirical use of blood and make a more scientific blood stock plan. The practice has received good results.