论文部分内容阅读
以最优控制理论,结合社会福利函数,建立了矿产资源耗竭时期内的跨期最优开采动态模型,分析、讨论、确定了各参数的政策含义及对矿产资源最优开采路径和耗竭时间的影响,进而对我国煤炭、石油、天然气和铁矿石等四种矿产资源的最佳耗竭速度进行模拟分析。通过对比近五年实际产量与最优开采量,结合Hubbert的“石油峰值”理论,对现阶段两者发展趋势相背离进行了分析,认为矿产资源产量达到并越过峰值时,才有可能逐渐向最优路径回归。最后为现阶段的开采状态如何向最优开采路径回归提供了政策参考。
Based on the optimal control theory and the social welfare function, a dynamic model of intertemporal optimal mining during the depletion of mineral resources was established. The policy implications of each parameter and the optimal mining path and depletion time of mineral resources were analyzed and discussed Influence, and then simulate the best depletion rate of four kinds of mineral resources such as coal, oil, natural gas and iron ore in our country. By comparing the actual production and the optimal exploitation in the past five years and analyzing Hubbert’s “peak oil” theory, we analyze the divergence between the current development trend and the mineral resources production and reach the peak value. Gradually return to the optimal path. Finally, it provides a policy reference for how to recover the optimal mining route at the current stage.